The world's economies still dance
to different tunes and have different boom and bust cycles that tend to
offset each other, even though the differences are getting smaller. As
a result, international stocks can provide diversification for a
portfolio heavy in U.S. stocks.
Between June 1997 and October
1998, for example, Japan's Nikkei index lost almost 40%, but European
markets did well due to continental economic union. U.S.-style
corporate restructurings also began to pay off. One region's success
balanced the other's failure to get its financial house in order.
There has been less divergence between regions more recently. Even so,
we suggest the prudent investor cannot afford to ignore overseas
markets. They now represent some 44% of world market capitalization, up
from 25% about 30 years ago. International stocks can provide solid
diversification for a portfolio heavily invested in U.S. equities.
Exchange rates add an extra flavor to foreign investments. Fluctuations
can add to or detract from profits or losses. Institutional investors
and others pay significant attention to this factor. When the U.S.
dollar was appreciating against the Japanese yen, billions of dollars
flowed out of that country and into U.S. stocks and bonds, worsening
the economic crisis in Japan. That money started to flow back out when
the currency valuation began to reverse. Americans saw their
investments in Japan appreciate then, even when the stocks remained in
neutral.
Funds that invest overseas fall into four basic
categories: world, international, emerging market and country specific.
Diversification is the key to containing risk. And, yes, a good fund
manager helps, too. Research is scarce and foreign companies, other
than some in Canada, are difficult for
individual investors to track on their own.
World funds are the most diverse of the four categories. They are, as
the name suggests, able to invest anywhere in the world, including the
U.S. As a result, they don't offer as much diversification as a good
international fund. Some have 60% or more of their holdings in the U.S.
World funds tend to be the safest foreign stock investments, but only
because they typically lean on better-known U.S. stocks. Just examine
the portfolio carefully to make sure they don't mimic your U.S.
holdings. Funds invested in small- to medium-sized companies are
unlikely to duplicate the foreign investment component of domestic
funds.
Foreign funds, on the other hand, invest mostly outside
the U.S. Whether they are relatively safe or risky depends on the
countries in which they invest.
Advice: choose a fund with the
best balance between countries and regions, or be very sure the manager
has a good record of moving in and out of regions profitably.
Country-specific funds invest in a single country or region. This type
of concentration makes them particularly volatile - especially those
that invest in emerging markets. If you pick the right country at the
right time, the returns can be substantial. Get it wrong and look for
your head to be handed to
you on a plate. These funds are for the most sophisticate investors only.
Emerging-markets funds are the most volatile, invested as they are in
undeveloped regions subject to political upheaval, currency risk and
corruption. These economies, such as Argentina's in 2002, can collapse;
governments can fall or be overthrown. On the other hand, these regions
have enormous
growth potential. Adding a small sprinkling of
emerging markets exposure to your portfolio could serve to lessen
downturns in U.S. markets - but they are for long-term investors only,
those who can wait for fallen markets to recover.
As always, of course, the biggest risks carry the greatest potential
for outstanding rewards; you simply require nerves of steel. The best
course is to diversify well and sleep soundly at night.
About the author:
Written & published by Murray Priestley, Managing Partner of
Portofino Asset Management, private investment managers and publishers
of the Portofino Report.
http://www.portofinoasset.com/