Happy New Year ! ! !  (Published 12/28/05)


The Optimist hopes 2006 will be the best year ever for all of us. He invites the market manipulators and COT commercials to close out their bankrupting silver and gold short sales, to open profitable long positions, and to follow our lead so they can share the prosperity and excitement that lie ahead for us.


Resolution for 2006


We have arrived into the magical time zone in which we can relax and enjoy happy time with friends and relatives, the gifts we have given and received, and a plentiful bounty of food and beverage, without yet being rudely reminded about reality by stepping on the scales or opening the stack of bills which will soon follow. This is also the traditional time to resolve to stop smoking and drinking, to reduce weight and exercise more, and similar self improvement fantasies that we seriously think are possible until we happily forget them over the next few days.


The Optimist will focus instead on a resolution to improve an investment area in which he has been a notoriously poor performer. The Optimist vows to eliminate leverage from his investment portfolio. As a relative youngster more than 30 years ago, I was one of the very few people to buy IBM stock and actually take a loss because I bought too early on margin and then sold in fear when prices dropped further before staging the rally I hoped to profit on. In 1979, I bought futures in gold as it first rose above $400, only to get stopped out at a loss when it corrected back to $390 before rocketing to $850 without me. In 1981, I bought futures in 30 year bonds at 52, but was again stopped out as bonds plunged into the 40s before beginning a two decade rise to much more than double those early levels. In more recent years, there were other occasions in which I was right on market direction, but too early in timing and I lost money because of leverage and fear. All of those previous timing and leverage errors were valuable lessons to prepare me for this unprecedented bull market for silver and gold. My resolution for this year is to insure that I do not miss the explosive moves in silver and gold which are certainly coming. This Optimist will maintain a substantial fully funded core position of investments in both precious metals markets without the leverage that transforms fear into panic, will only take modest partial profits near the top of channel, and will reinvest those profits near the bottom of channel to build a larger core position.


Silver Hopes


The Optimist has silver hopes for desirable events which may be unlikely, but are nonetheless possible during 2006. First on the Optimist's silver wish list is a strong hope that silver prices will not explode yet, but will become even more volatile during 2006. The Optimist wants frequent price spikes to the top and quick crashes down to the bottom of the bullish channel! Volatility implies price spikes which allow the Optimist to take partial profits on a small portion of his position, and heart stopping mini-price crashes that make it easy for the Optimist to convert all his accumulated fiat funny paper into the real money of physical silver and gold and the shares related to them. The Optimist is sure that the silver rocket will lift off in the future. The silver hope here is that the lift off can be further delayed at least another year so we all have more time to accumulate additional reserves for the once in a lifetime trip!


Another of the Optimist's silver hopes for 2006 is that independent candidates will be successful at the polls for state offices and for the U.S. Congress. The Repubocrats have had a monopoly on political power in America for too long. As a result, Repubocrats have merged into a like minded monolith which consistently spends too much taxpayer money and which always expands the power and expense of government at all levels. The only significant choice we now have at the polls is whether we want the Repubocrats branch which taxes and spends too much or the branch which borrows and spends too much. Repubocrats shout endlessly about what groups they want to spend more on in perpetual  giveaway programs and how they want to expand the government without limit for their favorite initiatives. The only times Repubocrats even mention the disastrous debt situation which our nation faces is in connection with their vague fantasies about unknown politicians in the future possibly reducing something to pay a little for the Repubocrats clearly defined plans to substantially increase spending now. The Optimist has silver hopes that someone will have the courage and integrity to run a major political campaign which honestly levels with the American people about our out of control debt and our massively bloated government. Although the glimmer from this part of my silver hope shines a little less brightly because the probability may be low, the Optimist nevertheless hopes that some of you who read this message may choose to run for office in 2006 as Independents. America needs to break the Repubocrats stranglehold on the political process. One way to accomplish that is to have successful Independent parties which are strong enough to carry into the mainstream our united voices calling for a smaller, more efficient, and less costly government at all levels, and a return to the honest money of silver and gold as required by the Constitution. Interjecting your voice into the political process is just as important as contributing resources to the Independent candidate of your choice. 2006 is a great year to push, or pull, or get out of the way.


True to his name, the Optimist has shining silver hopes that during 2006, people with proven leadership skills and a clearly demonstrated devotion to freedom and financial integrity in government will step forward to launch exploratory efforts leading to a run for President in 2008. Try to imagine the electricity and excitement that would be generated during an Independent primary in which Congressman Ron Paul, and Jim Sinclair, and your favorite Independent candidate debate directly to the American people about the serious problems inflicted on America by a century of unchallenged rule by Repubocrats. Even if there was no chance of electoral victory, the simple process of educating the people about financial freedom would make all of us winners. Add into the mix that America may finally be ready to hear an honest view about the wrong financial road our nation has traveled for so long, and about the difficult adjustments that are necessary to correct our problems, and we will all be energized by the dazzling brilliance of a silver hope that together we can win in 2008 and chart the path for a revitalized America. The Optimist asks everyone to send new years greetings to their favorite political Independent, and to strongly request that person to step forward to the leadership tasks which lie ahead. 2006 is the year to energize the Independent political process which can result in victory in 2008 and can begin the transformation into an America in which everyone can build a better future for our children.


Golden Dreams


The Optimist's silver hopes are prospects that may be improbable but offer at least a glimmer of possibility. In contrast, the Optimist also has a wish list of golden dreams that even he cannot view as possible for 2006. Even though the Optimist concedes that the following golden dreams are impossible for 2006, it is nevertheless important to present those dreams as continuing goals for the future. When the time is right, the Optimist is sure that all of his golden dreams can become reality, and he will present more detail about each topic in future commentaries.


And now on to the list of the Optimist's golden dreams. Here is an easy one for a quick start. The U.S. Government will announce an irrevocable plan to return to the constitutional money of silver and gold, before our worth less fiat dollars become worthless.


Our Nation's political leaders will embark on the path to return our government to its proper limited role of protecting rights and enforcing responsibilities. Government should not be in business (such as the post office), and should not provide "free" insurance (like FEMA giveaways after a natural disaster). A smaller government will result in much less of a tax burden, and taxes on income, savings, and investment can be completely eliminated.


There will, in contrast, be sharp increases in a tax on the combustion of hydrocarbons. That hydrocarbon combustion tax will immediately help us conserve a vital resource, improve our business and personal energy efficiency, encourage the development and deployment of alternative forms of energy, and reduce the proportion of our national wealth that we transfer to OPEC each day.


Personal responsibility will be more clearly defined and enforced, and our nation's education system will be reformed, so that many of the problems in society will be solved or substantially reduced.


The people will have a direct vote on the budget and political power of each elected office. The politicians who win a political campaign will be held accountable for fulfilling the promises they make while running for the office.


Imbalances in world wide debt will be resolved and the structure of international finance will be improved to eliminate current and future problems.


The successor organization to the UN will emerge and will begin to lead the world into peace and tranquility.


Best Wishes to All


2006 will be a dynamic time filled with opportunities, and punctuated with problems. The Optimist wishes all readers health, wealth, and stealth (from excessive taxes, crime, and big city turmoil). Cheers!



* * * Notice * * *

This commentary presents only the viewpoints of the Optimist, and it is intended only for perspective and entertainment.  Please do not interpret any portion of this work as investment advice.  If any of the concepts discussed here appeal to you, then you must do the work to decide if and when and how you should invest.  The Optimist does not ask for any profits you make, and he cannot be liable for any losses incurred as a result of your investment decisions.  The Optimist wishes you the best of luck in whatever you decide to do or not to do.  Cheers!


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by Jim Otis